美債展望突遭降級 [轉載]

美國向來穩如泰山的AAA最高信貸評級瀕臨降級！評級機構標普昨晚把美國長期評級展望由「穩定」下調至「負面」，加上歐債危機愈演愈烈，拖累美股周一開市後應聲急挫，道指最多大瀉247點，低見12,093點；納指亦插58點，報2,706點。資金湧入貴金屬市場、日圓避險，其中國際金價直撲每安士1,500美元大關。

標普發表報告，確認維持現時美國主權信貸評級水平，但炮轟美國民主、共和兩黨在金融海嘯爆發已兩年多，久久未能制訂削債策略，不排除或在一三年前，即明年大選前依然「傾唔掂數」，屆時美國信貸評級將遠低於目前的AAA水平。
標普信貸分析員斯旺表示，今次調低評級展望意即兩年內至少有三分一機會降級。不過，美國助理財長米勒隨即發出聲明，指標普低估美國解決財政困難的領導能力。
兩年內1/3機會降級美國發債上限有升無降叫人憂慮，財政部預估，當局最快下月中觸及14.3萬億美元的發債上限。彭博社資料顯示，根據總統奧巴馬及共和黨分別提出的一二年度預算案，美國未來五年發債上限或需大幅調高至最高20.8萬億美元，否則一旦美國出現債務違約，將對美國經濟及全球金融市場帶來毀滅性的災難。
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）上周二在美國總統奧巴馬宣布未來12年削赤4萬億美元前夕，鮮有地狠批美國政府缺乏具誠信的削債策略，敦促華府今年起必須加大緊縮財政力度，倘一再拖延，日後將要付出沉重代價。
其他金融市場亦顯著波動，英、法及德國股市尾段均跌逾2%。美債轉升為跌，卅年及十年期國債孳息率分別升5點子及2點子至4.52厘及3.43厘。數據供應商Markit資料顯示，美國主權債務違約擔保成本飆升16%。
其他商品受壓，紐約五月期油繼上周跌2.8%後，昨續瀉最多2.92美元或2.66%，低見每桶106.74美元。
東驥基金董事總經理龐寶林表示，標普舉措料會令美債債價下跌，資金轉流入黃金，他不排除對沖基金會借勢沽低環球股市，短線港股有機會回落至23500點，而五月續有許多不明朗因素，包括會否有債災、QE2完結及內地通脹未見頂、內地企業盈利受限價令拖累等，恒指第二季尾有機會下試22000點。
華揸重美債 恐貶值標普將美國信用評級前景由穩定降至負面，作為美國最大的海外債主國，中國所持的美債貶值風險，當然亦隨之上升。截至二月底，中國持有1.1541萬億美元的美債，比一月微減6億美元。這是中國連續四個月減持美債，合共減持212億美元。
外電引述中國人民銀行行長周小川說，國家外儲過多導致流動資金過剩，當局將努力減少外儲的積累，但他無提及怎樣減少外儲續擴張。

[img]http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20110419/photo/0419-00202-001h1.jpg[/img]
來源 : 東方日報

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